With audience tickets selling out in 36 minutes last year, this week Eurovision, a quintessential part of the European identity returns. This year, the competition is held in Sweden following Loreen’s historic 2nd win last year (to the dismay of crowd favourite Finland’s “Cha Cha Cha”), and coincides with ABBA’s career launching 1974 Eurovision win with Waterloo.
The idea of the competition is simple: 37 countries will compete in two semi-finals for a place in the grand final on Saturday 11th May. The big “five” (Italy, UK, France, Germany, Spain) and Sweden as host country are guaranteed a spot in the final.
During the grand final, each qualified country will perform their song in front of a live and television audience.
Once they have all performed, the politics begin. Each participating country’s jury (comprising five musical professionals voting jointly) attribute 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and 1 point to their favourite acts. The winner of Eurovision is then decided through an aggregate jury vote per country and public televotes (world-wide televoting). The country with the highest aggregate score wins.
Performing and winning Eurovision is a very delicate art form which has been intensely dissected through analyses such as song tempos. While seemingly an eclectic mix of songs, modern Eurovision songs always fall in one of six specific iconic entry categories; the wacky and wonderful, the classic europop, the European Beyonces, the sad piano ballade, the folklore, and the forgettable songs hinging entirely on a very attractive performer. See the previous acts below for several examples of this.
Previous Acts
Eurovision’s importance to the European identity
Behind the theatrics, Eurovision plays a very interesting role in European identity.
Created in 1956 by a consortium of European broadcasters, the idea was to televise different European acts coming together, and it serves as a once-a-year meeting place for Europeans around a glitter filled high-stake quirky event.
Although there are European gatherings such as the upcoming EU Parliamentary elections on 06 June to 9 June, informal European gatherings are rare. While the EU and Europe impact Europeans on a daily basis, most Europeans’ only obvious interaction with the EU might be free movement and its convenient much shorter “EU citizens” queue at the airport. In that context, watching Eurovision is an important meeting place for Europeans to come together and engage every year either through a screen or in person.
Are politics reflected in Eurovision scores?
As trivial and low-stakes as the yearly Eurovision results may be, they might also serve as an opinion poll for Europeans in reaction to crises and topical issues.
The following table logs different European crises and the country’s Eurovision score, the previous two years and the two subsequent years.
Event
Result previous two years
Result on the year
Result following two years
2005 EU Constitution rejection
In 2005, the EU failed to ratify a European constitution as although a majority of member states had ratified it, France and the Netherlands rejected it.
France:
18th / 26 (2003)
15th / 24 (2004)
The Netherlands:
13th / 26 (2003)
20th / 24 (2004)
France:
23rd/24
The Netherlands:
Failed to qualify for the final
France:
22nd / 24 (2006)
22nd / 24 (2007)
The Netherlands:
Failed to qualify for the final (2006, 2007)
Russia:
2nd / 24 (2006)
3rd / 24 (2007)
Georgia:
Did not participate (2006)
12th / 24 (2007)
Russia:
Winner
*the contest was held in May, prior to the war in August.
Russia:
11th / 25 (2009)
11th / 25 (2010)
Georgia:
Withdrew out of protest against Russia after its song was rejected by organisers for including references to Russia (2009)
9th / 25 (2010)
Following the 2007/8 financial crash, Greece suffered a debt crisis
Greece:
3rd / 25 (2008)
7th / 25 (2009)
Greece:
8th / 25
Greece:
7th / 25 (2011)
17th / 26 (2012)
2014 Russian annexation of Crimea
Russia:
2nd / 26 (2012)
5th / 26 (2013)
Ukraine:
15th / 26 (2012)
3rd / 26 (2013)
Russia:
7th / 26
Ukraine:
6th / 26
Russia:
2nd / 27 (2015)
3rd / 26 (2016)
Ukraine:
Did not compete due to financial difficulties related to the conflict, Winner (2016)
2016 Brexit referendum
In 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU
United Kingdom
17th / 27 (2014)
24th / 27 (2015)
United Kingdom
24th / 26
United Kingdom
17th / 26 (2017)
18th / 26 (2018)
2022 Russia-Ukraine War
Contest cancelled (2020)
Russia:
9th / 26 (2021)
Ukraine:
5th / 26 (2021)
Russia:
Banned (still in effect)
Ukraine:
Winner
Russia:
Banned (2023)
Banned (2024)
Ukraine:
6th / 26 (2023)
Upcoming (2024)
In 2005, the EU failed to ratify a European constitution as although a majority of member states had ratified it, France and the Netherlands rejected it.
France:
18th / 26 (2003)
15th / 24 (2004)
23rd / 24 (2005)
22nd / 24 (2006)
22nd / 24 (2007)
The Netherlands:
13th / 26 (2003)
20th / 24 (2004)
Failed to qualify for the final (2005)
Failed to qualify for the final (2006)
Failed to qualify for the final (2007)
Russia:
2nd / 24 (2006)
3rd / 24 (2007)
Winner (2008)
11th / 25 (2009)
11th / 25 (2010)
Georgia:
Did not participate (2006)
12th / 24 (2007)
Withdrew out of protest against Russia after its song was rejected by organisers for including references to Russia (2009)
9th / 25 (2010)
Following the 2007/8 financial crash, Greece suffered a debt crisis.
Greece:
3rd / 25 (2008)
7th / 25 (2009)
8th / 25 (2010)
7th / 25 (2011)
17th / 26 (2012)
Russia:
2nd / 26 (2012)
5th / 26 (2013)
7th / 26 (2014)
2nd / 27 (2015)
3rd / 26 (2016)
Ukraine:
15th / 26 (2012)
3rd / 26 (2013)
6th / 26 (2014)
Did not compete due to financial difficulties related to the conflict (2015)
Winner (2016)
In 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU.
United Kingdom
17th / 27 (2014)
24th / 27 (2015)
24th / 26 (2016)
17th / 26 (2017)
18th / 26 (2018)
Contest cancelled (2020)
Russia:
9th / 26 (2021)
Banned (2022, still in effect)
Banned (2023)
Banned (2024)
Ukraine:
5th / 26 (2021)
Winner (2022)
6th / 26 (2023)
Upcoming (2024)
From the table, we can see less mainstream European crises such as the 2005 EU constitutional crisis or the 2010 Greek debt crisis seem to have less impact on public votes as the result on the year and subsequent years seems to align with positions before. If the country was doing poorly (France, Netherlands, UK) or well (Greece) the votes received do not seem accentuated by the crisis.
However, large scale crises have a confusing impact on public voting. Russia was a runner-up in 2015 following the Crimean annexation. However, the victim country’s result also seems bolstered in votes. Ukraine won Eurovision in 2016 and 2022. Importantly, Ukraine’s win in 2016 was with Jamala’s song “1944” which passed the political censorship of the competition and discussed Russia’s mass deportation of Crimean Tatars under Stalin in 1944.
Public voting behaviours can be impacted by what the European public thinks of the country itself. A 2023 poll found that “half (49%) of Britons believe that what people think of other countries is most important in determining who wins the contest.
Televoting in Eurovision can be a political act in itself. In 2009, individuals in Azerbaijan were questioned by authorities “for being unpatriotic and a potential security threat” after voting for Armenia’s entry.
Finally, the final voting process is frequently accused of being political with voting pairs such as Russia/Belarus, Greece/Cyprus and Denmark/Sweden routinely voting for each other. For example, these patterns can be seen in who countries attributed their maximum 12 points to in the 2014 contest:
We can also analyse voting trends over time. Since 2014, the Eurovision contest has published data on televotes per country which allows the incorporation of televotes per country to the country jury votes in the analysis.
Within this data, we see that countries tend to form voting blocs, which means “nations in a voting bloc will vote for each other regardless of the song quality”.
These voting blocs reflect cultural and geographical proximity, and can reflect political alliances. Nonetheless, “in general, we see strong support for winning songs from their own bloc. Also, (ignoring the Balkans), winning songs do manage to rank highly across the other voting blocs” therefore it “would be hard to claim that all the blocs completely agree on the winning song.” Moreover, due to televoting, songs also need to be strong candidates from the public to win and cannot solely rely on votes from their block.
Eurovision: The Political Stage
Although a singing competition, politics is present in the voting and on the stage itself. The stage has been used to sing about political messages several times even though the organisers require songs to be apolitical. Most famously was Jamala’s 2016 song “1944” which referenced Stalin’s mass deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944. While there was original uncertainty over whether or not the song could be performed, it was allowed and ultimately won the competition that year.
Other notable political songs have been “Lasha Tumbai” (Ukraine 2008 entry), which, although at first glance, was an over-the-top nonsense song sung by a star headed tin man character, coincidently phonetically sounded closely to “Russia goodbye” when sung on stage. In 2009 with the contest being held in Moscow due to Russia’s win the previous year, Georgia’s entry “We Don’t Wanna Put In” was required to be changed. In protest, Georgia withdrew from the competition that year. In 2015, Armenia’s entry “Don’t deny” was required to be renamed after it called for recognition of the Armenian genocide.
This year is geared to be a particularly politically heightened edition as Israel has been allowed to perform despite the ongoing assault of Gaza and potentially genocidal actions, as highlighted by the UN Special Rapporteur. Earlier in the year, Israel was required to change their original entry “October Rain” as the song lyrics referenced the Hamas attacks. Already during the first semi-final Eric Saade, Sweden’s entry, performed wearing a keffiyeh around his wrist in protest.
Eurovision has also served as a very important progressive space. In 2014, Austria’s entry Conchita Wurst’s historic win with the drag performance “Rise like a Phoenix” was heavily praised for its representation of diversity. Several performances such as Diva by Dana International (Israel 1998 – first transgender performer), Ryan O’Shaughnessy (Ireland 2018 – featured an onstage same-sex love story interpreted by two male dancers), and a 2015 audience kiss cam which featured a same-sex kiss, have also allowed queer representation on live broadcast which ultimately could not be censored during broadcast in countries such as Poland which have strict anti-LGBT laws.
Finally, Eurovision has in its own way bolstered European soft power. The most famous example remains ABBA after their 1974 win with Waterloo. Eurovision is also widely watched across the world every year. Last year, 45 million unique viewers across 232 countries and territories watched content on the official YouTube channel during the week of the Live Shows. Moreover, “outside the participating countries, viewers in the United States, Canada, Kosovo, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Mexico, Hungary, Slovakia, UAE, Türkiye, and Chile cast the most votes online.”
In sum, as we head into this year’s Eurovision edition, the contest can easily be written off as a kitsch superficial event. However, Eurovision serves as an extremely valuable annual meeting place for Europeans to come together whether through a screen or at Eurovision watch parties. It serves as an opinion poll on different European issues, reflects on-going geo-political tendencies, bolsters European soft-power, and it is a stage for political messages and progressive change.
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Recommended citation:
Raballand, L. (2024) The Politics of Eurovision: Crises and tactical voting, IDRN, 10 May. Available at: https://idrn.eu/the-politics-of-eurovision-crises-and-tactical-voting/ [Accessed: dd/mm/yyyy].
