Austrian Elections: Another blow for the European Union

The continuum of right-wing governments is spreading throughout the European Union. Radical right-wing parties govern Hungary and Italy, and now Austria is due to follow. Austria held its parliamentary elections on 29 September and elected far-right Herbert Kickl as the next Chancellor. Although his Freedom Party (FPO) has not secured a majority (29.2%), it is unclear with whom the FPO will form a coalition. The current Chancellor, Karl Nehammer, from Austria’s People’s Party (OVP), ran for re-election but fell behind at 26.5%. President Alexander Van der Bellen, responsible for confirming the next Chancellor, is reluctant to do so. 

FPO and OVP: On Ukraine, Russia, and China

In this election, Austrians paid particular attention to policies lowering living costs, imposing stricter immigration rules, tightening security, decreasing inflation, and being less dependent on Russian gas. Kickl’s FPO is a far-right party that was founded by two former members of the Waffen SS, a combat branch of the Nazi Paramilitary organisation, in 1956 and represented former nazis in the 1960s; however, in the 1980s, it turned more moderate but remained weak until 2018. The party focuses on people’s dissatisfaction with large portions of the population and promotes anti-system rhetoric. 

FPO leader Kickl comes from a working-class background without a university degree but served as interior minister from 2017 to 2019. He has a strong anti-EU and anti-immigration stance and has allied with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban this year. His main domestic policies are centered on reducing corporate tax wage costs, limiting immigration and remigration, and limiting the role of Islam in Austria. FPO party has previously received Russian funding and was firmly established with Russia in 2016 under a cooperation agreement with Vladimir Putin’s party, United Russia (ER). The cooperation is set to last until 2026. Kickl’s policies toward Russia are therefore more friendly. Kickl opposes sending aid to Ukraine, is against sanctions imposed on Russia, and against the USA and NATO’s actions in Europe. The majority (66%) of the Austrian population view Russia as a threat and support sanctions (62%). During the election, and in order to avoid displaying his pro-Russian stance to his constituency, Kickl focused on economic relations with Russia, blaming inflation due to sanctions on Russia and remaining neutral in the war. 

The OVP, a center-right party currently in office under Chancellor Nehammer, has suffered over its tenure. Factors that have led to its decline are Austria’s sluggish economic performance, unemployment, high inflation, and a low growth forecast. Nehammer’s policies are similar to those of FPO in terms of toughening immigration and tightening security. However, in terms of foreign policies, the two vary. Regarding Russia, Nehammer and his predecessors have positioned Austria in a strongly neutral geopolitical position. In July, India’s President Narendra Modi, after visiting Putin, visited Nehammer, suggesting Austria as a neutral party to be a part of negotiating peace in Ukraine. Nehammer welcomes Modi’s initiation and likewise believes Russia needs to be a part of the peace process. However, Nehammer, unlike Kickl, supports EU sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine while urging an end to the war. Austria’s relationship with China peaked under the OVP administration in 2018. In 2019, Austria became part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and International and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) opened an office in Vienna. Austria welcomed these developments not only as an economic benefit to itself but also in positioning Vienna as an important interlocutor between Chinese BRI investments and the Balkan region, particularly in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

Russian and Chinese Election Interference? 

In Austria, the strong relationship between Russian Oligarchs and the Austrian political class, particularly the FPO and OVP, strongly believed that Russian election interference was present in the parliamentary elections. Moreover, earlier this year, Russia was purported to have meddled in Austria’s European Parliament elections by setting up networks in the EU, developing channels of information, and spreading disinformation, and in 2023, the Financial Times labeled Vienna as a hub for Russian espionage. The most notable accusation stems from the so-called ‘Ibiza’ scandal in 2019, where Sebastian Kurz’s (OVP) Chancellorship in coalition with FPO tried to sell influence over the Austrian political system to a Russian Oligarch, Igor Makarov. Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache (FPO) and FPO deputy leader Johann Gudenus (2017-2019) were caught discussing Russian financial support for their party that could be channeled through charitable organisations to evade detection. Moreover, they suggested that the Russians should consider buying large shares of Austria’s most prominent newspaper (Kronen Zeitung) to report positively on the FPO. Alongside this scandal, ongoing cooperation through Austria’s OMV oil and gas company cement FPO with Russia and, if elected, FPO will serve Russian interests. To a lesser extent, the OVP party is also linked to Russian interference through coalitions formed with FPO and ties to OMV, an oil and gas company. Under Nehammer’s chancellorship, Austria continued to import Russia’s gas. 

Chinese interference is not as visible politically but is targeted broadly through close economic partnerships. Since 2018, China has become Austria’s significant investor and business partner. SPO member and former Federal Council President Ingo Appe, during his visit to Beijing in 2019, assured Chinese counterparts of Austria’s intentions to deepen cooperation, signaled beforehand by Austria joining the BRI, ICBC opening an office in Vienna, and Vienna gaining another panda, a symbol of Chinese goodwill and strength in diplomatic relations. Moreover, a notable member of the Austria-China Business Association (ACBA) was former Chancellor Christian Kern, involved in numerous business deals with Chinese companies. 

Current situation

Austrian parliamentary elections do not have a clear winner. The FPO and OVP are very close policy-wise and have partnered up between 2000-2005 and 2017-2019. However, the leader of FPO, Kickl, is strongly disliked by OVP, particularly the current Chancellor Nehammer, and the President went as far as to say that he is a “risk to the country’s security” due to his extremist beliefs and indisputable links to Russia. Therefore, OVP is objecting to Kickl’s leadership. However, FPO has no choice but to form a coalition with another conservative party, leading to a scenario where Nehammer might have to concede his objection. The formation of a coalition is expected to take around two months; however, in this tumultuous election, it might take longer. The Austrian public has already staged protests on 29 September and is expected to conduct further demonstrations throughout October in an effort to prevent Kickl from taking on the Chancellorship. 

It is important to keep in mind that Austria has always been a neutral country in the EU, meaning it is not part of NATO and borders on allegiances between the East (Russia, China, etc..) and the West (USA, EU, etc..). After Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, unlike Sweden and Finland, Austria decided to be militarily neutral, a rarity in the EU, with an objective to strengthen its own neutrality. Most Austrian parties support this notion. Moreover, Austria’s main objective is to be strong economically, meaning attracting investment objectively. Whichever coalition FPO chooses to form, Austria will most certainly cater to Russian interests, welcome Chinese business, and pursue its strong anti-immigration policies. These factors will further contribute to Austria destabilising the European Union’s cohesion and its decision-making, which is already fragile.