Winter is coming: ‘Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security’

As Ursula von der Leyen prepares for her second term as President of the European Commission (EC) on 1 December, she addressed the EC joined by International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol to discuss Europe’s approach to the coming winter. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe scrambled to secure their own energy reserves and quickly diversify its energy supplies, but also to redefine its role as a global security actor. Von der Leyen pledged to accomplish and advance 7 aspects of European policy within the first 100 days of her mandate (an expected deadline of 11 March 2025). Amongst these are the highly anticipated White Paper on European Defence, a crucial step toward the EU’s independence in defence. 

With the start of the heating season, European officials hold that securing Ukraine directly strengthens the EU’s security. But what does this truly entail? How does this support of Ukraine shield Europe from external threats and geopolitical manoeuvring? This article delves into the geopolitical factors underpinning a shared EU-Ukraine security strategy, the broader EU defence vision, and the potential impacts of NATO dynamics and the outcome of U.S. elections on Europe’s security landscape.

Proposed Action Plan for Ukraine’s Energy Security

In her joint press conference, von der Leyen highlighted the importance of supporting Ukraine through the upcoming winter. She announced that the EU’s support of Ukraine’s maintenance of its energy supply aids them in protecting EU citizens from blackouts, but also counters Russia’s strategy of targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure to cut off its power. On 26 August, more than 230 missiles, aimed at power stations, substations and other key infrastructure, were launched leaving Ukrainians without electricity. The EU’s current role is to cater to the immediate needs of the population, while Ukraine builds a more resilient energy system. To address both immediate needs and long-term resilience, the proposed action plan is to repair, connect and stabilise and reach the target of 17 gigawatts of power capacity for this winter. The EU will focus on repairing Ukraine’s damaged thermal plants and hydropower; exporting electricity via the connection of Ukraine to the European grid – a task that was accelerated by the war and took two weeks instead of the two years previously scheduled; and finally stabilise the flow of energy in the country by decentralising its production and investing in solar panels on rooftops, simultaneously advancing Ukraine’s energy independence and clean transition. The plans are to equip 8 out of 21 hospitals with the solar panels to ensure their energy supply. 

Since the beginning of the war in 2022, €2 billion has been allocated towards Ukraine’s energy security. But this new proposed action plan for this upcoming winter will require expensive financing, with the EU pledging €160 million more for this winter, including €60 million in humanitarian aid for shelters and heaters and around €100 million for repair works and renewables. Von der Leyen has ensured that this funding comes from Russian frozen assets seized via sanctions as she adds that they should be paying for their destruction. Despite this investment in their energy infrastructure, Ukraine still needs the financial backing of the United States. This need however can affect loan reliability as currently the European sanction renewal framework requires the EU to unanimously vote every 6 months.

The White Paper on European Defence

In July 2024, von der Leyen published her political guidelines report for 2024-2029, where she calls for the continued support of Ukraine, and states, “the best investment in European security is investing in the security of Ukraine”. The report highlights the neglect the European Union has shown in underinvesting and inefficient spending on its military capabilities. The figures reported the EU’s combined spending on defence between 1999-2021 increased by 20%, whereas in the same time period, Russia and China have increased their defence spending by 300% and 600% respectively, acknowledging the disproportionate and disjointed spending individual Member States have spent on their national military budgets. A coordinated response on defence spending will not only ensure efficiency but also allow for a shared threat response, making the Union stronger. In von der Leyen’s second term, a Commissioner for Defence will be appointed who will work closely with the next High Representative and Vice-President. The European Commissioner assures Member States will always “retain responsibility for their own troops, from doctrine to deployment’. However, together, Europe can coordinate efforts to strengthen the defence industrial base as well as research and innovation.

Von der Leyen went on to detail not only plans within the European Commision but also the discussions with the European Parliament and the European Council’s Strategic Agenda, which will come in the form of the White Paper on European Defence. A ‘white paper’, a term coined by the British government in 1920, is a special report giving information and proposals on a specific issue. The White Paper will outline the creation of a European Defence Union, where the EU can define itself and its future on its own terms rather than as a reactionary actor influenced and shaped by outside events. It wants to redefine its security approach to a collective EU defence strategy where it identifies efficient investment needs. 

European strategic autonomy, NATO’s influence and the 2024 US Elections

Until a European Defence Union is formally established, there are a number of actors behind the scenes pushing for more European autonomy in security matters. The EU’s focus on strategic autonomy—ensuring self-reliance in defence and energy security—has intensified since 2022, when Europe faced the challenge of securing energy reserves amid a predicted harsh winter and rising tensions with Russia. The EU’s reliance on NATO and other allies came under scrutiny, raising questions about how Europe would handle security threats independently, especially with conflict unfolding at its borders.

Strategic autonomy is the term coined in 2016 to promote the need for a European Union led security and defence policy without relying or with little reliance on its trans-atlantic partners present in NATO. This policy document seeks to establish a plan should armed conflict break out within EU borders but has since been expanded to include not only military autonomy but also autonomy within the technological, health, cyberspace, and raw material spheres. French President Macron has been the biggest advocate of European Strategic Autonomy, expressing his desire to strike a balance between greater European autonomy and maintaining strong ties with traditional allies, particularly the United States. 

Meanwhile, when Olaf Scholz’s speech after the invasion of Ukraine called for a ‘Zeitenwende’, a historic turning point, and an increase in Germany’s military spending and modernisation of the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, Europe was excited to see what may come as this was a complete shift in Germany’s previously cautious foreign and security policy. However, after two years of research on the implementation of this security policy, Dr. Benjamin Tallis, head of the Action Group Zeitenwende and a former senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), has called it a failure. Germany is the second largest financial supporter of Ukraine, but these donations are regarded as disproportionate to their GDP. The anticipation dissipated as Germany’s sole victory was the termination of its Russian gas imports. Their hesitation to send arms or supplies to Ukraine left its European partners questioning its commitment to joint defence cooperation.

With a probable shift in American foreign policy under Trump, Europe’s focus on strategic autonomy becomes increasingly urgent, as the EU prepares for the possibility of a weakened NATO alliance. Trump has long been a vocal critic of NATO and has gone so far as to say he will leave the alliance as he feels the US finances an unfair amount in comparison to other members. It is also certain that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will be decided by the incoming administration, Vice President Kamala Harris put discussions regarding the much needed loan on the back burner to focus on her campaign. In this context, Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is increasingly critical, not just for energy security but for ensuring a cohesive defence strategy amidst uncertain global alliances.

Concluding thoughts

The EU’s commitment to strategic autonomy is essential for its future as a security actor. While past U.S. leadership may have allowed the EU to rely on NATO and de-prioritise its own defence policies, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the urgent need for a unified European defence strategy. The EU’s initial response to the invasion revealed vulnerabilities and a lack of preparedness, highlighting gaps in coordination among Member States. To establish itself as a credible global security actor, the EU must actively build a coordinated, cooperative strategy across the bloc. 

This will not be easy, especially given that some European parliamentary groups lack clear defence policies, but it is time for the EU to prioritise and implement a unified security agenda. As the EU works towards a unified security framework, it must address the varying priorities of Member States, which may risk slowing progress to claim its role as a global security actor founded on collaboration. Nevertheless, continued dialogue in defence policy, investment in defence mechanisms, and energy resilience will be the path forward to navigate the shifts in US foreign policy and transatlantic cooperation.