Colours of the Ice: The Arctic in Transformation

While the Arctic’s seemingly stark, white ice-covered landscape may give the impression of desolation, the existing land areas in the Arctic region have their unique ecosystems and characteristics. The Arctic is home to a variety of terrestrial environments, including tundra, mountains, and permafrost regions. These lands provide habitats for numerous species and play a crucial role in the overall ecology of the Arctic. A natural seasonal rhythm maintains the balance of ecosystems in this region: throughout most of the winter, a 1-2 metre thick layer of sea ice covers the surface of the ocean, formed by the freezing seawater. As spring and summer bring increasing solar heat and rising air temperatures, this ice pack begins to melt significantly, reducing to about half its wintertime expanse by September. However, climate change, acting as a driving factor and warming the Arctic region three times faster than the global average, is swiftly and profoundly transforming the environment, significantly interfering with this natural seasonal rhythm. 

According to the latest assessment from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Arctic sea ice cover is currently at its lowest level since at least 1850. The projection anticipates that the Arctic will likely be ice-free during summer before 2050 (some studies predict this scenario as early as the 2030s). This alarming trend is not merely a matter of scientific curiosity but a global concern of the utmost importance. 

The importance of Arctic sea ice lies in its role within the climate system. Picture, for a moment, the expansive, pristine white surface of the Arctic sea ice. This frozen expanse acts as a magnificent mirror, reflecting sunlight back into space (Albedo effect), thus serving as Earth’s natural thermostat. As the ice retreats, it reveals the darker ocean beneath, which eagerly absorbs the Sun’s energy. This event marks a critical turning point as the once pristine stage turns dark, initiating a climatic crescendo with consequences that ripple across the world. An ice-free Arctic is of ecological, economic, social, and security importance. 

From the ecological perspective, an ice-free Arctic disrupts ecosystems, shifts weather patterns, raises sea levels, and significantly alters temperature equilibrium. This disruption threatens the survival of various species reliant on the Arctic environment and destabilises the delicate ecological balance, impacting biodiversity and food chains.

From an economic point of view, an ice-free Arctic Ocean means the emergence of new trade routes, namely the Northwest Passage along the coastlines of Canada and the United States and the Northeast Passage, which runs through the territory of Russia. Their significance lies in their ability to drastically reduce the time and fuel consumption of trade between, for example, Asian and European markets, thus profoundly influencing global economic dynamics. In addition, the melting ice is also opening up access to previously untapped natural resources such as oil, gas and minerals, leading to increased competition between nations for economic dominance and resource exploitation in the region. This increasing interest can fuel geopolitical rivalries, trade competition, and the need for investment in infrastructure and technology, all contributing to a significant reconfiguration of global economic interests and power structures.

At the same time, increasing activity in the Arctic will prompt nations to reinforce their surveillance and defence capabilities. This surge in military and strategic interests accentuates a delicate balance between potential conflict and cooperation. As countries vie for control and access to the newly accessible Arctic territories and resources, geopolitical tensions can rise. The strategic significance of the Arctic as a potential trade route and a repository of valuable resources fosters concerns about sovereignty and national security, compelling nations to reevaluate their military presence and preparedness in the far north – creating a complex security landscape.

As we already see, the northernmost region on earth around the North Pole is not a uniform region. The numerous challenges in the Arctic as a result of anthropogenic (man-made) climate change also make clear that the Arctic is not simply a remote frozen, dark and cold space. The simplest way to understand this is in a direct comparison with Antarctica at the Earth’s South Pole. Where Antarctica is a continent uninhabited by humans and surrounded by ocean, the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by landmasses. The region has been inhabited for thousands of years by indigenous Peoples and many national borders run within it. The Arctic has always been a space that connects (in research, exchange of indigenous peoples), separates (borders and military presence) and is accompanied by interests (economy and natural resources). Climate change affects all these dynamics and what was long considered frozen and unchangeable like the eternal Ice is now melting and characterised by comprehensive changes with far-reaching consequences for nature and people in the region and around the globe.

In recent years, numerous countries have developed or renewed their Arctic strategies. This does not only affect the eight neighbouring states mentioned. The increasing global importance of the Arctic has also led to their respective Arctic strategies in states such as China and India but also in many European states such as Germany and France. The European Union also published its newest Joint Communication on a EU Arctic policy in 2021. Since 2008 the EU has developed its objectives and actions in the Arctic to support research cooperation and sustainable development. The EU contributes significant funds for Arctic research e.g. through its Research and Innovation Programmes (Horizon Europe) which also led to the establishment of the EU-PolarNet platform to “co-develop strategies to advance the European Polar Research action and its contribution to the policy-making process”. With the increasing tensions in international relations the newest Joint Communication from 2021 the EU dedicates itself to be also a stronger geopolitical actor in the region. While the EU recognises the primary responsibility of the eight Arctic states to deal with the challenges and opportunities in their respective territories, the EU “as a legislator for parts of the European Arctic must also be taken into account”. Especially since the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, the role of the EU in the Arctic gained increased attention and the question is what contribution the EU can and should bring to the future cooperation and stability of the Arctic region?

The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has especially changed international cooperation in the Arctic, which for a long time has been described as Arctic exceptionalism. The Arctic Council, as the central intergovernmental body of the Arctic countries with its Working Groups, has to adjust to this changing geopolitical reality without abandoning the goal of promoting peaceful scientific and political cooperation in the Arctic. What contribution can the EU make in this task and what does it mean when it defines its engagement in the Arctic as a “geopolitical necessity”? 

Colours of the Ice is a five-part series, in which we elaborate within the topics of environment, economy and security the driving motivations and interests for the EU and how it understands its (geo)political role in a changing Arctic. Throughout the series, we will engage with experts and specialists deeply immersed in the nuances of this region. Concluding the series, we will present EU policy recommendations aligned with the ethos of safeguarding the Arctic not only for our generation but also for generations to come.

In our forthcoming article, we will delve into the complex ecological fabric of the Arctic, unravelling the delicate ecosystems that thrive in this extreme environment.  But also how climate change affects this delicate balance and what that means for the almost 4 million people who call it home.  Given this context, we will also investigate the initiatives being spearheaded, notably by the EU, in response to the evolving circumstances.